In a widely rumored mobility announcement this week, Google introduced Android, an open source software platform for mobile phone handsets that will be managed through the new Open Handset Alliance (OHA) consortium. Google’s initial gifts to Android include a Linux-based operating system, a browser, personal productivity applications, and access to its payment system. The announcement forecasts that the first consumer handsets using the technology will become available in the latter half of 2008. How will the Android technology impact manufacturers?
Google wants to catalyze the formation of a huge business ecosystem around the Android platform, similar to the way such an ecosystem developed around Microsoft’s personal computer operating systems during the late 1980s. Why this strategy? From a technical perspective, Google is now a supercomputer company that runs ultra-popular web applications and supports itself through embedded advertising. Google’s web search, YouTube, Maps, Gmail, Blogger, and Google Earth are its most popular applications. Google’s strategy is to extend this business model to the new Android mobile handset platform, recognizing that the handset will always have different performance attributes than the desktop/laptop. In order to extend their ad business effectively, handsets must have (and Google must create) a reference software platform for the industry that offers low-cost entry to independent software vendors (ISVs).
The present handset market already includes operating systems like Symbian, Palm, and Windows Mobile. But in today’s market the mobile carriers dictate hardware and software choices and customizations. They do this in order to reduce their own support costs and enable a low-cost business model for the vast consumer segment. As carriers embrace Android, ISVs will be able to address market niches, rather than trying to sell products to companies the size of Vodaphone, AT&T, or T-Mobile. What’s in it for the carriers? A share of a new and potentially valuable advertising revenue stream, plus access for their customers to compelling applications from Google and others. These applications could drive rapid revenue growth from new services as well. Unlike the Apple iPhone, Android is a hardware-independent strategy, and it doesn’t treat the carrier like a “dumb pipe”.
What Android will do in the short term is form the battle lines around the handset as an application platform. In-plant mobility applications using mobile computers have benefited from the standardized Windows Mobile platform that has emerged during the past few years. The Windows market share in handsets, by contrast, remains miniscule. Manufacturing companies (and their ISVs) who want to extend their mobile applications from mobile computers to handsets now find themselves confronted with greater uncertainty about their preferred platform for the mid-term future. This will make planning even more difficult, because during the same period of time carriers will be deploying new wireless broadband capabilities based on either WiMAX or enhanced 3G technologies. Enterprise users don’t benefit much from platform wars, and it now appears that handset applications will be such a war zone for the next 3-5 years at least.