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12/4/2008
By David W. Humphrey, ARC Advisory Group
SPS/IPC/DRIVES 2008 was held on November 24 – 26 in Nuremberg, Germany, and it attracted close to 1,400 exhibitors and more than 48,000 visitors. SPS/IPC/DRIVES is promoted as the exhibition for electric automation technology.
The secret of the SPS/IPC/DRIVES show’s growth and success has been its razor-sharp focus on discrete automation – until now. The show’s organizers are now loudly discussing the possibility of adding process automation to next year’s line up – an idea that has unleashed passionate debate. Awkwardly, the organizers would limit this to “electrical” process automation (whatever that means), as if that were a way to separate it from the Interkama show, Germany’s main process automation show (now part of the Hanover Fair). The fact is, Interkama has been dying a slow death for a decade, and adding process automation at SPS/IPC/DRIVES could be the final blow for what was once Europe’s premiere process show. Process automation in Nuremberg would clearly benefit some suppliers, first and foremost Siemens, but also other discrete suppliers that are moving into process, such as Rockwell Automation and B&R.
The show could try to reposition itself as a “discrete to hybrid” show, but it might be difficult to keep out the heavy process suppliers with the vague definition of “electrical process automation”. Another consideration is space: the current show already occupies 9 of 12 halls in Nuremberg and continues to grow with its current focus. Adding process automation could quickly push the Nuremberg fairgrounds to the limit, forcing the show to move to a larger venue, just as it did a decade ago when it moved from Stuttgart to Nuremberg.
In ARC’s view, the move to an “all automation” format that includes process automation is inevitable. This would parallel the ongoing trend of discrete and process automation growing together. The Deutsche Messe has failed to revive the ailing Interkama show after moving it from Dusseldorf to Hanover six years ago, robbing Germany of an important forum for its many process suppliers. In its place, SPS/IPC/DRIVES has the potential to shake its regional image and move to the forefront of the European trade fair landscape. However, this would force the organizers to reinvent, rename, and possibly move the show to a new location, thereby risking the very formula that has made SPS/IPC/DRIVES so successful. 11/20/2008
As the industry tries to assess the potential effects of the upcoming economic downturn, the latest quarterly results of automation suppliers seem to indicate business as usual – for now.
Siemens Industry sector, the leader in many automation market segments, claims to be well positioned for the new fiscal year, citing an order backlog 21 percent higher than 2007, although growth rates for new orders are expected to decline.
KUKA, a leading supplier of industrial robots and welding systems, reported mixed results in Q4, but also mentioned a higher than average order backlog.
On the end-user side, BASF, the world’s largest chemical producer, announced plans to cut back production in 80 plants worldwide due to a massive decline in key-industry demand in the last month, especially in automotive.
Elsewhere in Europe, nearly all major automakers report sharp drops in demand and have announced plans to halt production in some plants for up to five weeks in order to reduce a sudden glut in unsold inventory.
What is interesting here is the apparent contradiction between supplier results and customer forecasts. An explanation for the gap between the results of automation suppliers and the outlooks of manufacturers lies in a short analysis of manufacturers’ investment behavior. Orders for capital equipment are typically placed anywhere from several months up to a year in advance of expected delivery. This fact alone results in “built-in” delay of about six months before automation suppliers begin to feel the effect of spending cuts by their customers. In the face of declining demand, end-users may cancel, reduce or delay investments intended to increase or improve capacity. However, capital spending is typically planned over several years in support of future product strategies. This means that production systems investments are planned to support future rather than current demand, making them less vulnerable to short-term cuts. In other words, automation supplier sales tend to be cushioned during downturns thanks to their customers’ long-term investment plans.
10/29/2008
By Florian Gueldner, ARC Advisory Group
The financial crisis has dominated European headlines since the beginning of the year -- not just the financial news, but also daily news and mass media. The recent decline of the major stock indices was not sudden - it started about a year ago and has continued mercilessly ever since. The roots of the financial crisis are located in the real estate market where financial institutes invested huge sums in sub-prime markets, willing to take unknown risks. The bursts of the housing bubbles in the US, Great Britain, and Spain triggered the downturn and started the ball rolling. So what will be the impact of the financial crisis on automation suppliers and manufacturers?
On the supply side (manufacturing of goods), some small, and possibly even larger, companies depend on short-term loans to finance their production by feeding it with necessary raw materials from labor to copper to PLCs. Uncertainty about future development and expensive capital create a situation where investments focus on securing business. This also means that opportunity costs of not investing in better infrastructure are seldom taken into account. Therefore, manufacturers will delay investment in everything that is not absolutely necessary to keep production running, meaning that investments in automation equipment will have to wait. In the worst case, healthy companies may stop producing because they can’t get credit to cover short term expenses.
On the demand side, consumers may delay investments for high-ticket items like cars or furniture. This will shift demand to goods that have a lower income elasticity, like food and pharmaceuticals. Income elasticity describes the relatedness of a product to income, e.g. a rise in income will rise the amount of money spent on luxury goods far more than the money spent on potatoes.
Beside supply and demand, there are two other important developments that are being neglected: exchange rates and oil prices. Both the euro/dollar exchange rate and oil prices have dropped recently. Neither can be interpreted as purely positive, since sinking oil prices are caused by a lower demand in the industry, and the euro depreciation resulted from the effects of the US-downturn in Europe. This suggests that the Euro Area no longer appeals to investors as a safe haven, so to reduce currency risks, euro-assets are less in demand. Nevertheless, both developments cushion the real economy in Europe since exports get comparably cheaper and energy costs are lowered.
So much for the comet, now let’s get back to Earth where the comet will impact: namely on European manufacturing. Compared to the US, the European economic system is far more conservative and, in the current situation, this is a plus. European consumers rely less on credit, which means consumption is not affected as much as in the US. Additionally, many companies, especially in Germany, depend less on liabilities or stock markets, and privately held companies have high equity to asset ratios. This means they are more solid and can better survive a dry period on the financial markets. ARC expects the economic downturn of the real economy – meaning manufacturing - to be less severe in Europe than in the US. The financial situation of consumers, suppliers and producers differs from the US situation and therefore is likely to recover faster. The world’s economies are experiencing a low point right now, no doubt, but compared to the financial markets, one could say: better a low point than the abyss.
10/16/2008
By Simon Bragg, ARC Advisory Group
RedPrairie’s International user conference, RedShift International:2008, was held last month in Birmingham, UK, and it attracted a diverse audience with its aggressive agenda. The Keynote presentation, Delivering Extreme Performance for Our Customers, was delivered by Martin Hiscox, Vice Chairman of the Board, Managing Director and President International – RedPrairie.
The acquisition of LIS by RedPrairie is clearly a success. In Europe, the company has the scale to handle dramatic shifts in the market. For instance, retail was half the company’s business in the first half of 2007, yet under a quarter in the first half of 2008. Instead, business from 3PL’s is increasing.
The main demonstration of RedPrairie’s new capabilities was a product recall. The WMS system locks down the inventory, the retail store manager is requested to remove the recalled items from the shelves, and the shop tills are also locked to prevent the recalled item getting sold. In principle the TMS system rediverts/reroutes trucks carrying the recalled product. Essentially the demonstration shows Red Prairie’s ability to manage inventory across a network of retail stores and DC’s.
Recent European Success
In addition, there is a range of new offerings now available to European customers. For instance, Carphone Warehouse purchased Store Execution, which it is rolling out to 800 stores, and Tesco has implemented Global Retail workforce management both at the DC and at the retail store. John Lewis implemented labor management, achieving a 15% productivity gain, and saving £600,000 across three DC’s. Mitchells & Butler, which operates pubs, is implementing labor scheduling, to ensure each pub has the right number of staff, at the right time, to handle what is highly variable demand. Interestingly, Mitchells & Butler’s focus was to optimize service, rather than to minimize cost. Globally, P&G replaced SAP’s WM with RP/linux across 277 sites.
New European TMS Solution
Probably the most interesting deal is Norway Post’s $25 million contract for TMS, which entails some 60,000 hours of joint development, and is probably the biggest TMS contract in 2008. Many North American TMS solutions built for the US truck industry are not particularly successful in Europe, as European logistics practices and processes are different.
At first glance, RedPrairie has incorporated almost all the European requirements that I know into its TMS solution. Besides the standard differences, such as dates, languages, units of measure and terminology, there are more subtle differences. For instance, in Europe there are multiple sources of map data, (Teleatlas, Map & Guide, etc) and shippers and carriers require common maps if they are to agree the carrier’s charges for miles done. Norway Post’s processes are also complex, for instance the company has a private fleet, as well as 3PL contracts, and in turn the 3PLs may subcontract the work to haulage companies; however the customer pays the haulage company who in-turn pays the 3PL, who pays Norway Post, making the accounting somewhat complex. Optimized routings using ferries is also a common requirement in the UK and Scandinavia. In addition, European roads are closed to heavy goods vehicles at certain times to ease traffic congestion, transit speeds in mountainous terrain are clearly slower, and drivers prefer to return to their homes (domicile return) in the evenings. Hours of service legislation is slightly different, and loads are rated by weight, rather than volume. Red Prairie has incorporated these requirements into its TMS solution.
Last Words
Most of the European WMS suppliers have remained WMS suppliers, and not broadened their offering. Red Prairie has broadened its European offering to cover supply chain execution. With references for its broader solution footprint in place, RedPrairie looks set to maintain its leading European position. 10/15/2008
By Simon Bragg, ARC Advisory Group
Satyam is a leading global business and information technology company, delivering consulting, systems integration, and outsourcing solutions to clients in over 20 industries. The company employs 50,843 and for FY 08 achieved revenues of $2.1 bn, of which EMEA accounts for approximately 24 percent. Satyam has succeeded in UK and Germany, from which it derives the larger share of its European revenues. Nevertheless, Satyam has a presence in Benelux and Scandinavia and has won accounts in France amongst the CAC 40.
Satyam is probably the Indian outsourcer most committed to manufacturing. In Europe, by number of accounts, automotive accounts for 15% of customer relationships, Aerospace &Defense 2%, and other manufacturing about 9%. Life Science 9% and Energy/Utilities 7% are also major verticals. Unlike its competitors, banking and finance only represents 12% of accounts in Europe and ~24% of its Revenues Globally (FY 2007-08).
Satyam’s culture and modus-operandi
Satyam’s success is probably due to a rather different culture and modus-operandi. The company is far more open, friendly, and trusting than other IT vendors. At a recent Satyam analyst event, Bird’s Eye described how they implemented a new SAP infrastructure within 18 months, after a buy-out from Unilever. The first set of consultants rolled into meetings with an A5 copy of the contract under their arm, so that all discussions referenced the original contract. For the consultants, this was probably a great way to manage their risk. However, for Bird’s Eye, it was just too difficult to discuss issues, to jointly solve problems, and keep the project on track. Rather courageously, these consultants were fired.
Satyam’s approach was completely different. The implementation team hadn’t read the contract, and their approach was “fair”, involving give and take, open discussions, and a focus on completing the project. Nor, according to Bird’s Eye, did Satyam focus on finding and creating additional work for its consultants. What impressed me, was that after the weekly meeting, Satyam would provide a quote for any additional work by the end of that day. Satyam’s culture of openness and trust even extended to the analyst meeting: senior and middle management executives were trusted and empowered to talk to analysts, alone, without being chaperoned by junior, clueless, PR executives - something that is sadly rather rare these days.
Perhaps this culture arises because Satyam’s management approach is different. Most other IT consultancies measure consultants’ billable hours, which drives behaviors that ensure each consultant remains on site. Satyam eschews this approach, instead managing the performance of groups. This also enhances middle-manager’s motivation and Satyam has one of the lowest attrition rates amongst its peers.
Satyam in Manufacturing
Within European manufacturing, Satyam has particular expertise in the automotive sector. One strategy is to first win projects converting, for instance, 2-D CAD drawings to 3-D. Then they can expand the relationship to more complex design tasks, such as simulating the interior of the Airbus. On the plant floor, Satyam provides NC programming services, but they have also solved complex problems – in one case Satyam improved the design of the paint nozzle for an OEM’s paint shop, which reduced the volume of rework.
Satyam’s Acquisition Strategy
Satyam’s strategy is to expand their capabilities by acquiring relatively small, boutique consultancies with a strong local presence. Recent examples include: S&V in Belgium, Bridge Strategy, Caterpillar’s Market Research and Customer Analytics, Citisoft, Knowledge Dynamics, and Nitor. Satyam’s value add is that the company is global, and so can replicate these consultancies capabilities and expertise globally.
S&V is a good example of a consultancy with a solid methodology for improving supply chain performance. S&V targets six industries, namely Food & Beverage, Pharmaceutical, Paper/Steel, Industrial manufacturing, and Hi-Tech. Essentially, S&V takes the business strategy, and defines appropriate supply chain policies and processes.
There are seven elements to aligning the business and supply chain strategy:
- Align cost & profit offering: This is based on a fairly detailed cost to serve model, which calculates individual customer and product profitability. For instance, this step reviews how many SKU’s there should be, and where customers should be paying more. This step is supported by Equazion, which takes the company’s data, and builds a double cost to serve model – i.e, calculates all the discounts each customer receives, as well as a detailed breakdown of the supply chain costs.
- Align Network: is essentially supply chain network design, using Ortec’s Boss tool, and the supply chain council’s SCOR model.
- Deploy: calculates inventory and safety stock levels at each location.
- Relationships: identifies which customers and which suppliers should be part of a VMI or SMI program
- Asset: determines whether logistics should be in-house or outsourced, and if outsourced to which 3PL’s under what terms and conditions
- Technology: identifies which IT solutions are appropriate.
Once these seven steps are aligned, S&V then uses techniques such as OEE, and process mapping to improve key processes within manufacturing and the supply chain. Although the acquisition only completed in April, S&V has already won a couple of projects in North America.
Last Words
In short, Satyam is one of the few IT companies with over a billion in revenues, that retains the flexibility, openness and client management skills of a $5 million turnover company. There is undoubted expertise in manufacturing, especially within Automotive. Satyam’s success in Europe, to date, has been mainly based on its relationship with global OEMs. Its challenge is to replicate this success amongst Europe’s mid-market manufacturers, especially outside the UK and Germany.
10/3/2008
By Simon Bragg, ARC Advisory Group
In the US, Georgia Tech is well known for its best practices and logistics research, and produces many excellent benchmark reports. To date, European logistics managers have lacked such data. However, Cranfield University, which is the leading academic institution for logistics in the UK, has published the results of its second survey.
Summary of Results
The report is packed with useful data and results. Median performance was 7 inventory turns per year, 99% inventory accuracy, between 99 and 99.5% pick accuracy, and 99.5% order fill rate. The figure of 99.5% order fill rate sounds high, and probably refers to orders placed on the warehouse, rather than customer’s orders.
Explanation of Results
Median inventory and pick accuracy is unimpressive, and this is mainly because UK warehouses have not invested in the appropriate equipment. Around 82% of respondents were still using paper for some of their communication processes, which I would guess is the source of most of the errors. Only 62% used barcodes with a data terminal, and 39% used vehicle mounted terminals. Under 5% are using voice and pick to light technologies. About 17% of warehouses are using internally developed WMS systems, which are unlikely to support best practices. However, about 42% of the warehouses surveyed were under 10,000 square meters, and such warehouses tend not to invest in technology.
I was surprised by relatively small amount of cross-docking in the UK. About 55 percent of respondents cross-docked between 0% and 5% of their orders, and about another 27% only managed to cross-dock 6% to 10% of their orders. Given that 55% of respondents were using a specialist WMS package, I would have thought that there was sufficient functionality within these packages to opportunistically identify a greater proportion of cross docks.
Voice, however, appears to the technology that is going to gain the most rapid adoption, as over 20% of respondents were planning to implement voice.
Final Word
On UK plant floors and in UK warehouses, culturally there is a great reluctance to invest in tools and technologies that assist operators improve their productivity. Benchmarking data assists warehouse managers demonstrate to senior managers that performance could be improved and to justify investments. The next benchmark survey needs greater consultation with warehouse managers to define the information that they require, - for instance cost/case data. There would probably be greater commitment from warehouse managers to researching their data, if only those that participate were allowed access to the really useful data.
10/1/2008
By Simon Bragg, ARC Advisory Group
A reasonable estimate for the uptake of voice directed picking in Europe is that the total number of voice directed operators has doubled to about 43,000 in the past two years. Vocollect is the clear market leader, with about 40 percent of its $100 million revenues deriving from Europe. Zetes, which acquired VoCognition in 2006, claims to be the leading implementer, and claims to be responsible for implementing over two thirds of the users.
So why is voice “hot”? Partly the technology has matured – Nike, for instance, argued that the technology wasn’t ready for adoption at their Belgium DC until 2005. In addition, equipment prices have dropped over the last couple of years. Compared to other technologies that improve supply chain performance, implementation is relatively easy, as it doesn’t require extensive collaboration with other departments or organizations. For the operators, there is no great change in working practices, and unlike other technologies, they are not asked to record additional data which is of no benefit to their task. Payback is usually within a year.
3PLs are also recommending their clients adopt this technology. 3PLs are risk and technology adverse, and require considerable reassurance before recommending a technology. Generally, 3PLs don’t invest their own money in technology, and so they need to persuade their clients to provide the capital. Sometimes this is in return for a modest price cut, sometimes because they promise a dramatic improvement in pick accuracy.
Voice directed picking clearly works well where pickers require two hands to handle the items. However, if the warehouse is mainly handling pallets, the benefits case is more difficult. There should be gains in accuracy, and softer benefits, such as reduced accidents, since the fork lift driver is looking at where he is driving, rather than at a terminal.
Voice applications outside the warehouse?
Everyone starts with picking. However, users in Europe appear, as far as I can tell, to be more willing to roll voice out to putaway, receiving, cycle counting – i.e. across all warehouse tasks. Nevertheless, in principle, any task could be improved by voice, if it meets the following criteria:
- Want eyes focused on the task, not on the instruction or check list
- The task requires two hands
- Task requires some data entry
- Accuracy is important
- Each task is slightly different
- Each task is of relatively short duration, and then new instructions are issued
So the obvious next area for voice is retail: both for shelf stacking, cycle counting, and re-ordering - if replenishment is not calculated automatically from EPOS data. In addition, where retailers have an on-line business, and fulfillment is via in-store picking, voice could have a major impact. One could expect pharmacies to adopt this technology, as the gains in accuracy are highly beneficial, and pharmacists devote a lot of time to picking and put-away.
There should be applications in manufacturing: kitting and WIP movements around the plant are tasks similar to warehouse picking, areas where voice works well. Voice is also proven in quality control/inspection, as you want the inspector to be inspecting the item and recording what’s there, rather than reading the check list. – Initially Vocollect targeted quality control in the early 1990’s, because quality control inspectors tended to work from the same location, as in those days the equipment was bulky. In addition, a similar task to quality control is condition monitoring, - where a maintenance engineer regularly inspects the condition of the equipment.
Hospitals/healthcare could have potential, as every patient requires routine care – turning over, washing, feeding etc, and voice could usefully step the nurses through these tasks. One of the less known problems in hospitals is medication errors – i.e, some combination of wrong drug, wrong quantity, wrong patient. The accuracy gains that voice enables could considerable reduce this problem.
Final Word
Voice is rapidly gaining traction in Europe. Compared to many other technologies that enhance supply chain performance, it is mature, offering a relatively easy, trouble free implementation, relatively quick payback, for a relatively low capital investment. It is well proven in the warehouse. The next challenge for the voice solutions suppliers is to identify tasks outside the warehouse that could benefit from this technology.
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