As new open process automation systems are developed and commercialized, there will inevitably be a long transitional period as owner-operators migrate the installed base of DCS equipment to the new architecture. Some may decide to upgrade their installed DCS technology rather than adopt an entirely new automation architecture. ARC expects that the transition from a DCS installation to the new architecture could be as difficult as a DCS upgrade. However, from that point forward, up-dates to the new open architecture systems should be much smaller and easier to manage.
Developing a business forecast and model for the long penetration of a new architecture into the existing DCS installed base is difficult at best. Perhaps a better way to envision the business impact is to consider the case of a greenfield plant that adopts the new architecture as a base case, and envision how such a plant might be designed, built, operated, and maintained.
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Keywords: Asset Lifecycle, Automation Business, Business Model, Design and Build, ExxonMobil, Open Automation, Operate and Maintain, ARC Advisory Group.