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Overview
Adherence to global emission standards is necessary to control and reduce pollution levels, which directly and indirectly impacts the well-being of people and the environment. Statistics reveal that India has the most polluted cities in the world, indicating there are no India emission standards. Thirty cities in India figure in the Top 100 Most Polluted Global Cities (in terms of particulate matter PM10) 
as per data published by the World Health Organization in May 2016. India’s atmospheric air quality has been adversely impacted by industrial and vehicular emissions.
Improving air quality requires a commitment to integrating clean transport strategies, compelling change in both fuel and technologies. Recognizing this need, India’s government made a bold move last year to leapfrog from BS-IV (Bharat Stage IV) emission norms to BS-VI norms by April 2020 – entirely skipping BS-V norms. The BS norms are broadly based on the European regulations (Euro norms), setting specifications/limits for the release of air pollutants from equipment using internal combustion engines, including vehicles.
While on paper this seems a good move, it implies a significant technological development challenge for which the entire ecosystem must scale up. The two major industries impacted will be oil refineries that will need to make substantial investments to supply fuel types to match the BS-VI standards and automobile manufacturers that will need to figure out how to produce compliant vehicles.
This Insight discusses this jump to BS-VI norms, the current scenario in India that precipitated this decision, the challenges and its implications for industry, and the changes that will be required for effective implementation.
Current Scenario
India’s rapid urbanization necessitates scaling up the existing infrastructure. With more than 10 million people migrating to cities and towns annually, the urban population is projected to reach 600 million by 2031. The government has allocated 20 percent out of the $1 trillion investment reserved for infrastructure during the 12th five-year Plan (2012–17) to build an adequate road network to cater 
to the increased traffic and movement of goods. India has a road network of 2.05 million miles, the second largest globally. Although most highways are well-maintained, roads in many tier two cities and towns need to be improved.
As in other emerging economies, roads in India cater to multiple modes of transport, which move at varying speeds – cars, trucks, autorickshaws (three wheelers), bullock carts etc. The technologies used range from very basic to advanced. In such a setting, it is not easy to impose global emission standards. Still, to compete on a global turf it is mandatory to adhere to these standards. Certainly a “catch-22” situation.
India has traditionally lingered when it comes to enforcing and implementing emission norms for the manufacturing sector – and India’s automotive industry is no exception. According to recent research done in New Delhi, vehicles contribute 59 percent, 50 percent, and 18 percent of the overall emissions of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and nitrous oxides, respectively. Policymakers and environmental groups in India realize the need for stricter emission standards for all types of vehicles in the country.
Brief History
- Emission norms were introduced in India for petrol (gasoline)-powered vehicles in 1991 and for diesel-powered vehicles in 1992. Subsequently, India made the catalytic convertor mandatory for petrol vehicles and introduced unleaded petrol.
- The country’s Supreme Court ruled that all vehicles in India must meet Euro I or India 2000 norms by June 1999; and that Euro II will be mandatory in New Delhi by April 2000. Manufacturers were unprepared for this upgrade and, in a subsequent ruling, the implementation date for Euro II was not enforced.
- In 2002, the Mashelkar committee recommended a phased implementation of future norms with the regulations being implemented in major cities first and later in the rest of the country.
- National Auto Fuel policy was announced in 2003. The roadmap for implementation of the Bharat Stage norms were not laid out until 2010. The policy also set guidelines for auto fuels; reduction of pollution from older vehicles; R&D for air quality data; and health administration.
Moving to BS-VI Emission Norms: The Implications
Transitioning to BS-VI norms requires adoption of new technologies, innovations in manufacturing, and testing and validation. All are time-consuming. Further, in India one has to consider the multiple angles: road conditions, diverse climates, fuel, maintenance etc. Technological changes come with a price tag; and in a price-sensitive market like India it will definitely impact automobile sales.
Differences Between BS and Euro Emission Norms
Other than for some differences in averaging due to driving conditions in India, BS emission norms reflect the exact emission levels stipulated for the Euro emission norms. For example, in India the speed at which the vehicle is tested on the dynamometer is slower than the European cycle for emission testing, and the weight placed in the car while testing is higher.
Changes Required to Upgrade to BS-VI Norms
Fuel: The oil industry says that BS-VI-quality diesel will be available starting in 2020; the total investment that oil companies will have to make will range from $7.5-12 billion. The current BS-IV diesel has 50 parts per million (ppm) of sulfur and ultra-low sulfur diesel will have 10 ppm. The sulfur specification for petrol is also being reduced 50 times - from 500 ppm in BS-II fuel to 10 ppm in BS-VI (same as Euro VI).
Automobiles: To reduce particulate matter (PM) emissions diesel passenger cars need to be fitted with a particulate filter (DPF), and a DeNOx Catalytic converter to reduce NOx emissions. Other related components and sensors also need to be fitted to ensure compliance.
Car manufacturers are voicing dissent because although they have access to the technologies, integrating these into the manufacturing processes is complicated. BS-VI vehicles must also be equipped with an SCR (selective catalytic reduction) module which could take about three to four years to fit. Even after completing this, car manufacturers will have to test their fleets with commercial-grade fuel; and BS-VI grade fuel will not be available until 2020. India’s auto and auto components industry will have to invest over $10 billion over the next three years to be able to manufacture BS-VI compliant cars. In an ideal situation, upgraded fuel should be ready and in the market before upgraded vehicles are on the road.
The most daunting issue confronting both sectors is the absence of a holistic view on the future of mobility. Other industries need to collaborate to make this work too - power; roads and highways; cement; steel etc. In a recent interview, Friedrich Boecking, Regional President (Diesel Systems), Bosch said, “You require four years to graduate from one stage to another. But, if you want to skip one stage, you may want to give at least six years to do that.”
Conclusion
Emission regulatory bodies implement norms to reduce pollution levels and create a healthy environment. Emission norms are intended to reduce pollution levels; but also typically result in increased vehicle and fuel costs due to the improved technology and higher fuel prices. However, many would argue that these costs are offset by savings in health costs for the general populace.
Clearly, drastic upgrades such as jumping from BS-IV to VI norms create turbulence. Many have expressed skepticism about whether this move will succeed. Others guardedly say that with concerted coordination between the government, industries, and policy implementers it may be feasible. Whether the shift to BS-VI norms succeeds or remains an overambitious concept will depend on investments, innovation, and a willingness to adapt to change.
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Keywords: Pollution, BS-VI Norms, Global Emission Standards, Automotive, Oil Refineries, Ecosystem, ARC Advisory Group.