Decarbonizing the Power System

Overview

As of March 2023, global temperatures are currently 1.1 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times and show no indication that they are stopping any time soon. While temperatures rise so does the concentration of CO2 in the air. According to the latest data, concentration levels have hit 422 parts per million, which is approaching the global tipping point of 478 CO2 ppm. The Earth has not seen CO2 concentrations this high in 3 to 5 million years when global average surface temperatures were 2–3.5 degrees Celsius higher than preindustrial times. Out of more than 1,200 rising temperature scenarios projected by the Institute for Climate research, only 230 paths leave our planet below 1.5 degrees Celsius before the end of the century. To avoid irreversible climate damage, humans need to decarbonize the power system and avoid reaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark. Scientists, governments, and utilities are all working strategically to meet the increasingly growing demand of power generation while simultaneously decarbonizing the entire system.

Humans’ Long Relationship with Fossil Fuels

Almost everything a human does daily is intractably tethered to energy. Everything either involves, depends, and/or utilizes energy. As long as humans have been using energy it has been synonymous with fossil fuels. To put it lightly, decarbonizing the power system by 2050 is nothing short of eliminating the use of the only concentrated, economic source of energy humans have ever known in a span of 30 years. Technologically, abatement options are plentiful and new technologies are always in development.

Ranging from energy efficiency, building electrification, battery storage, and carbon capture, the options are endless. These options may be accessible to a few but there are challenges that are prohibiting mass adoption by people, governments, and communities. For example, electric vehicles have been available to paying customers for years but one of the biggest challenges facing widespread adoption is the lack of ubiquitous public charging stations. Additionally, low middle class individuals cannot afford an electric vehicle due to focus on more profitable high-end cars and the high price of batteries. The technologies essential for half of the needed reductions remain very costly, which needs to change in the next 10-15 years to meet the rigorous net zero goals in the Paris Agreement.

How Are We Doing?

According to the IEA About USD 2.8 trillion is set to be invested globally in energy in 2023. 1.7 trillion of that is being invested in renewable technologies, while the other 1 billion is going to coal and oil. As these record-breaking investments in renewables continue to climb, so do the emissions from fossil fuels. The latest reports show that the world is currently burning through its carbon budget with data showing that fossil fuel and gas usage being the highest it has ever been. Globally, almost all countries (75-100 percent) are relying on fossil fuels to produce energy.

Data from the BP Statistical review of world energy reported in 2019 that 81 percent of the world’s primary energy comes from fossil fuels, and the rest is nuclear or large hydro dams. As restrictions loosened emissions rose, in 2021 CO2 emissions rebounded to 36.6 Gt, the largest ever annual rise in emissions. Latest emissions data coming from the IEA reports that in 2022, CO2 rose only 300 million tons due in part to large scale renewable adoption.