ARC Advisory Group Market Update

Sentiment Index

Current Month

The overall situation remains excellent. ​

Even though supply chain problems remain, and lead times are high, the situation is at a similarly high level since April 2021.​

Most markets have long exceeded the pre-Covid levels.​

Some effects, which we described remain important:​

• Prices of automation equipment are increasing, which means that revenues will also increase.​
• Machine builders order large quantities to secure their supply, instead of ordering for 2 months in advance, they order for a year or even longer.​
• Distributors try to stock up and order whatever they can.​
• While it still seems to be the case that orders reflect actual demand, we see the threat of order cancellations.​

Next Month Compared to This?

• High Spread means higher uncertainty for the outlook.​
• The uncertainty is among the highest that we recorded over the last one and a half years.​
• While the supply chain issues remain a key concern, the Omicron mutation of the Coronavirus is an increasing concern of people in the market, leading to sharp increases in cases and the potential of further political action, including lockdowns. ​
• The Government of China is reacting with drastic measures and there is a certain threat that the winter Olympics will ultimately trigger new lockdowns.​

Trending Topics

• Over the last months we have worked hard on a text-based analysis for the comments provided by all participants. So far, we have used the topic feedback to identify the special topics that we write about. Now, we can start a more thorough analyses.​
• The chart aside shows all topics mentioned so far.​
• Outlook/business cycle ranks top, which is not surprising, as this is the key aspect of the survey.​
• IoT and digitalization ranks second but is again quite a broad topic.​
• More interesting is what ranks top besides this, showing the key trends in automation.  These are:​
  • Artificial Intelligence​
  • Networks​
  • Cybersecurity​
  • Chip Shortage​
  • Edge and Cloud
• Business models are slightly trending. Business models refer to things such as EaaS (Equipment-as-a Service), so moving away from CapEx to more smoother OpEx spendings / earnings. ​
• Less participation in December due to holiday season

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Key Takeaways

• 2021 was a continuous expansion​
• Key topics:​
  • Digitalization​
  • AI​
  • Edge/cloud​
  • Semiconductor/chip shortage​
  • Energy topics, decarbonization ​

Economic Update

• Sentiment Index​
• Automation Index​
• Machinery Index​
• Industry End Users​
• Semiconductor Deep Dive​
• Conclusions ​

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