Nuclear Power 2025

Executive Overview

There is an urgent global need for new power sources to replace CO2-emitting coal and gas power plants and to meet the increasing demands for electricity due to electrification and the predicted power requirements of data centers. The delay in replacing or reducing emissions from fossil fuel power plants has exacerbated the urgency for action, as the Earth's average temperature has already risen by more than 1° C (1.8° F) above pre-industrial levels. This rise has led to a measurable increase in the frequency and severity of costly weather events such as droughts, wildfires, floods, and sea level rise.

Concurrently, the US views the AI race as an existential threat, with investments in AI already reaching hundreds of billions of dollars per year. While GPUs, servers, and data centers are being built at a record pace, AI insiders like Sam Altman (OpenAI) and Eric Schmidt (former Google CEO) claim that the energy required to run them is the largest constraint limiting the race for AI supremacy. Currently, data centers worldwide consume about 1.5 percent to 2 percent of global electricity, with US data centers accounting for approximately 4.4 percent of the country's power consumption.

This figure is expected to grow to 9 – 12 percent by 2030, primarily due to AI support. Similarly, the US adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is anticipated to result in a comparable power demand by 2030. While the electrification of buildings and industries is crucial for long-term decarbonization, their projected electricity demand growth by 2030 is less dramatic than that of data centers and EVs.

Currently, there is strong US government support for nuclear power and data center developers are embracing new nuclear power, but there are zero new US nuclear power plants planned to start construction before 2030. In addition to full-sized nuclear power plants like the Gen III+ Westinghouse AP 1000 there are more than 70 other companies that are developing Small Modular (SMR) and advanced reactors that are designed for improved safety and flexible operation that full-sized nuclear plants cannot provide.

To meet power needs, the US government is extending the life of existing coal plants and supporting the construction of new natural gas power plants without using carbon capture. Curiously, the government is removing support for low-cost wind, solar and batteries that have been the largest source of new power production and will be the largest source of new power additions over the next five years. The US approach to expanding power generation is distinctly different from China’s across all choices for new power including nuclear power. This report will discuss the global technology and forecast for new nuclear power and how nuclear fits with other sources of power.