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I had the opportunity to attend the second d5 conference following the 2016 OTC. The organizers changed the content a bit to have a mix of outside and inside industry thinkers. Vivek Wadhwa spoke as the keynote on the topic of how industries die or decline.
He introduced his topic with a discussion of technology. As many such presentations point out, information technology moves and grows exponentially. More importantly, everything is becoming IT. Vivek went on to review the evolution of the telephone. Consider the many things a phone does now. There are even medical/health apps because the sensors the device carries and it is always on. For example, the BBC recently ran an article on “How a Smartphone Could Help Spot Disease.” Medicine is going digital and anything that becomes digital begins to follow the exponential curve of progress. IBM’s Watson has demonstrated that it can diagnose cancer better than humans. It is conceivable that we will witness AI Physicians in a few years. This digitization will enable more personalized medicine.
At the same time, the cost of that technology is dropping. In the area of genomics, we have witnessed a dramatic drop in the cost per genome. The price of cellular phones has dropped while the functionality has increased. The GPS units in the 1970’s cost around $120k, and now are embedded in your phone with a part that costs less than a dollar. In fact, Mr. Wadhwa states that the technology advancement and cost reductions lead to a democratization of technologies and services. As examples, the speaker took the audience through the progressions of robotics, printing, and augmented reality.
Where there is disruption, there is opportunity. IT is disrupting every industry, because of the speed of innovation and the speed of data flow. In IoT, everything is connected. In the context of education, consider the possibility artificial intelligence-based tutors accessed via cellphone, and the impact worldwide. Mr. Wadhwa also mentioned Swasthya Slate as an example in the medical field. This device leverages cheap sensors and processors to provide access to medical knowledge and testing, resulting in easy diagnosis. It has been extremely useful in third-world countries where medical access is limited and for a fairly reasonable price of $600US. It should be noted that such disruptive technology faces regulatory headwinds in more advanced nations because of the threat to existing business models.
So, how do industries and businesses become toast? Vivek starts with the obvious: demand is peaking. When growth stops (or when demand for a product or service peaks), the market abandons you. Along this line, he predicts in 6 years, China's manufacturing industry will be toast. His reason? China is moving to greater automation like robotics, but their robots work like US and European robots. This means that manufacturing in China will offer no appreciable difference to manufacturing in the countries that have lost their manufacturing base. When coupled with the cost of transport, China will offer no benefits to manufacturers who's primary markets are in other large economies. 3D printing offers a similar type of disruption. He predicts the same thing will happen to India’s IT industry.
Trillion dollar opportunities happen at intersection of exponential technologies. This is where we are today. Disruption is happening in every industry where technology can be applied.
“You must lead or become toast.”
He introduced his topic with a discussion of technology. As many such presentations point out, information technology moves and grows exponentially. More importantly, everything is becoming IT. Vivek went on to review the evolution of the telephone. Consider the many things a phone does now. There are even medical/health apps because the sensors the device carries and it is always on. For example, the BBC recently ran an article on “How a Smartphone Could Help Spot Disease.” Medicine is going digital and anything that becomes digital begins to follow the exponential curve of progress. IBM’s Watson has demonstrated that it can diagnose cancer better than humans. It is conceivable that we will witness AI Physicians in a few years. This digitization will enable more personalized medicine.
At the same time, the cost of that technology is dropping. In the area of genomics, we have witnessed a dramatic drop in the cost per genome. The price of cellular phones has dropped while the functionality has increased. The GPS units in the 1970’s cost around $120k, and now are embedded in your phone with a part that costs less than a dollar. In fact, Mr. Wadhwa states that the technology advancement and cost reductions lead to a democratization of technologies and services. As examples, the speaker took the audience through the progressions of robotics, printing, and augmented reality.
Where there is disruption, there is opportunity. IT is disrupting every industry, because of the speed of innovation and the speed of data flow. In IoT, everything is connected. In the context of education, consider the possibility artificial intelligence-based tutors accessed via cellphone, and the impact worldwide. Mr. Wadhwa also mentioned Swasthya Slate as an example in the medical field. This device leverages cheap sensors and processors to provide access to medical knowledge and testing, resulting in easy diagnosis. It has been extremely useful in third-world countries where medical access is limited and for a fairly reasonable price of $600US. It should be noted that such disruptive technology faces regulatory headwinds in more advanced nations because of the threat to existing business models.
So, how do industries and businesses become toast? Vivek starts with the obvious: demand is peaking. When growth stops (or when demand for a product or service peaks), the market abandons you. Along this line, he predicts in 6 years, China's manufacturing industry will be toast. His reason? China is moving to greater automation like robotics, but their robots work like US and European robots. This means that manufacturing in China will offer no appreciable difference to manufacturing in the countries that have lost their manufacturing base. When coupled with the cost of transport, China will offer no benefits to manufacturers who's primary markets are in other large economies. 3D printing offers a similar type of disruption. He predicts the same thing will happen to India’s IT industry.
Trillion dollar opportunities happen at intersection of exponential technologies. This is where we are today. Disruption is happening in every industry where technology can be applied.
“You must lead or become toast.”