Open Process Automation Systems Face a Long Transitional Period

Overview

As new open process automation systems are developed and commercialized, there will inevitably be a long transitional period as owner-operators migrate the installed base of DCS equipment to the new architecture.  Some may decide to upgrade their installed DCS technology rather than adopt an entirely new automation architecture.  ARC expects that the transition from a DCS installation to the new architecture could be as difficult as a DCS upgrade.  However, from that point forward, updates to the new open architecture systems should be much smaller and easier to manage.

Developing a business forecast and model for the long penetration of a new architecture into the existing DCS installed base is difficult at best.  Perhaps a better way to envision the business impact is to consider the case of a greenfield plant that adopts the new architecture as a base case, and envision how such a plant might be designed, built, operated, and maintained.

Structure of the Open Process Automation System

New-architecture automation systems will have these new components:

• Real-time Advanced Computing Platform (RTAC) - This is a high availability on-premise cloud server configuration with real-time capabilities.  It will support control engineering, online optimization, APC, HMI, historian, and many other functions.  It will also be capable of performing regulatory control.
• Distributed Control Node (DCN) - A networked single-loop controller in a small form factor that may also have compute and storage capability. The DCN will process sensor I/O, perform regulatory control (its primary function) and may host applications such as device or loop diagnostics. The single-loop nature of the controller means that failures would impact only a single loop.
• Real-time Service Bus - A distributed real-time information service built around a publicly defined multi-vendor standard technology.
• Field I/O - Lower cost modules may support field measurement I/O and field device management.

Framing the Business Question

In order to frame the thinking on business impact, it makes sense to evaluate the impact over the complete plant lifecycle (design, build, operate, and maintain). The analysis must also examine the impact on each type of stakeholder organization.  These two variables can be used to create a matrix (see table).

The major classes of stakeholders in process plants are:

• Plant Owner-Operator
• EPC - Engineer-Procure-Construct Firm
• Process Automation System Supplier
• Major Equipment OEMs
• ISV - Independent Software Vendor

• IT or OT Services Firm

Software May Change the Most

Probably the biggest change will be for software suppliers who will be presented with a highly standardized software environment.  Elimination of vendor-specific software adaptations may bring more ISV suppliers into the market. ISVs will also be able to certify their products for the reference architecture. 

The DCS software utilities and engineering tools that today are bundled with DCS products are likely to see the most change.  In ARC’s view, the functional areas served by this DCS software (control and HMI configuration, as-built documentation, change management, etc.) are critical for the automation system lifecycle.  But since these areas are the most highly vendor-specific applications there is very little customer choice and very slow innovation.  Furthermore, many end users still employ old versions of DCS software utilities -- versions that have been replaced by newer products.  They do this because the older products are familiar, built into their work processes, and because automation suppliers often charge a premium for new and improved software tools.

Some examples of software products that should become feasible include:

• As-built automation system documentation - Software for documenting IT networks may be adapted for documenting the as-built automation system configuration.  If extended to map the configuration of the real-time information service, a single software tool may serve to document all the automation system hardware and its real-time information flows.
• Plant situational awareness - These applications exist now as real-time analytic applications relying on broad access to process and control system information. Often these are costly to configure and maintain.  A standard automation architecture should lower costs. 
• Asset performance management - Simplified integration may broaden the market for equipment-oriented or vertical industry applications focused on asset and plant performance.  It is an open question whether such applications would run on-premise or in the Cloud.  Probably that will be a customer choice.

Services to Focus More on the Manufacturing Process

After-market service is an area also certain to change radically.  DCS suppliers pretty much monopolize the services market for their installed base; they are the only source of deep expertise in their own equipment and software. The problem with this monopoly position is that service subscription rates are generally low, and many end users opt for only a fraction of the available services. This service market is smaller now than it could be.

One future scenario is that after-market service could split into systems-focused and process-focused service businesses.  The monitoring and maintenance of hardware and software will become more like conventional IT services (albeit service for systems that touch the manufacturing process).  These services could be contracted along the lines of existing multi-year IT service contracts. Process consulting services, on the other hand, will depend less on DCS knowledge and more on deep process expertise.

Finally, the largest change in the service business will be to reduce its “captive market” nature.  Automation suppliers may lose the benefits of their incumbency, but they will also be able to compete to supply services for any new-architecture plant.  Service supplier differentiation will be based more on the tools, methodology, and expertise they can bring to bear and less on knowledge of a particular automation system.

Recommendations

While, at this stage, it is still too early to determine to exactly what extent new open automation will change the process automation business, owner-operators should discuss this with existing and potential software and service providers as well as their peer organizations.

Assessing business impact will be one task of the process automation forum soon to be formed by the Open Group.  Owner-operators should plan to participate or at least closely follow the activities of this consortium.

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Keywords: Asset Lifecycle, Automation Business, Business Model, Design and Build, ExxonMobil, Open Automation, Operate and Maintain, ARC Advisory Group.