ARC Machinery Index Update Q3 2019

By Florian Güldner

ARC Report Abstract


  • Our Index is contracting for the first time since Q4 2016 on a Y-o-Y basis​
  • Machinery markets are at a turning point in business cycle​
  • Fast-moving markets have already turned negative in Q4 2018 on a Y-o-Y basis, many followed on Q1 2019​
  • Heavy machinery markets started to show negative​
    Y-o-Y growth in Q2 2019​
Machinery Index
  • Electronics and semiconductors in particular are currently slowing down the market​
  • Machine tools follow and the downward trend will accelerate over the next quarters​
  • Downturn also strongly affecting other industries that have been struggling in recent years (pulp & paper, printing, textiles)
  • Quarter-over-quarter market development is more dynamic, with shorter cycles​
  • The downturn began to accelerate as early as Q4 2018​
  • These charts add the index levels to the overall picture​
  • Electronics and semiconductor machinery peaked in 2018 at 3 or 4 times 2006 levels​
  • Oil & gas and plastics and rubber experienced a strong boom, but also crashed and have not yet returned to a healthy growth path ​
  • Printing and metal forming have been moving sideward for quite some time​
  • Some markets have experienced nearly constant growth since 2010 (compressors, packaging, HVAC, elevators, material handling, lumber & woodworking)​


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